Peter Hrnciar
11 min read · Sep 25, 2026
We often talk about equal opportunity in terms of education, hiring, funding, and access to resources. All of those matter, but they share an earlier step that shapes every one of them: whether anyone finds out you exist. When information gets stuck, opportunity gets stuck with it.
That earlier step is the subject of this article. The aim is an equal chance for relevant work, expertise, organizations, and ideas to be discovered and considered, with what happens next decided by value and relevance rather than by prior fame, money, or access. Equal attention and equal outcomes are separate questions, and this piece argues for neither.
Visibility Feeds on Itself
Some organizations start with visibility already in hand: a known brand, established networks, existing customers, and reliable channels into public view. A new business, an independent professional, an emerging artist, or a small organization often starts with little more than the quality of the work, and quality on its own is rarely enough to be found. And when good work goes unseen, the people who need it lose out too.
This pattern isn't new. Sociologists have been documenting it for decades. In 1968, Robert K. Merton described what he called the Matthew effect: prominent scientists tended to receive disproportionate credit compared with lesser-known researchers making comparable contributions.
A 2018 study published in PNAS measured the same effect with unusual precision. It looked at a Dutch research grant for early-career scientists and compared applicants who landed just above the funding cutoff with those just below it, whose review scores were almost identical. Eight years later, the narrow winners had collected more than twice as much research funding as the narrow losers, and they were 47% more likely to have become full professors. The authors found no evidence that the first grant led to better work. Part of the gap came from the near misses applying for funding less often afterward, which is how a structural disadvantage quietly becomes a personal one.
The clearest demonstration comes from a 2006 experiment published in Science by Matthew Salganik, Peter Dodds, and Duncan Watts. They built an online music market in which 14,341 participants listened to and downloaded songs by unknown bands. Some participants could see how often each song had been downloaded, and others could not. Making popularity visible made success both more unequal and less predictable. The best songs rarely failed, and the worst rarely did well, but between those extremes, early visibility decided a great deal. No gatekeeper had to intervene; the structure produced the result on its own.
The Systems That Increasingly Shape Discovery
A relatively small number of large digital systems now sit between people and much of what they find. Search engines rank results, email providers decide which messages reach an inbox, social platforms decide which posts get distribution, marketplaces decide which sellers surface, and AI assistants increasingly decide which sources get consulted and cited in an answer. Each does a necessary job, since nobody can examine every result and nobody wants an inbox full of fraud. Each also makes decisions about visibility, and those decisions add up.
Search
Attention concentrates at the top of the page. A Backlinko analysis of about four million Google results found that the first organic result receives 27.6% of clicks, roughly ten times as many as the tenth, and only 0.63% of searchers click anything on the second page. Most pages never get that far: Ahrefs found that 96.55% of the roughly 14 billion pages in its index receive no traffic from Google.
Paid advertising can buy prominent space on the page, though it doesn't buy a higher organic ranking. Organic ranking draws on signals such as links, authority, and reputation, which established sites have had years to accumulate. A newer organization therefore has two jobs at once: offering something relevant and competing with the accumulated visibility of organizations that were already easy to find.
Email and Communication
Spam filtering is essential, and without it email would be close to unusable. It is also imperfect. A legitimate first message from an unfamiliar organization can resemble unwanted mail closely enough to be filtered or rejected, and when that happens, software has decided whether two legitimate parties ever get to talk. The task is to keep protecting people from misuse while leaving a reasonable path open for legitimate first contact.
AI Answers
Traditional search shows a set of sources to explore. AI systems increasingly select from a smaller set and write the answer directly, which makes source selection far more consequential. In a Pew Research Center study of 900 U.S. adults' browsing in March 2025, people who saw a Google AI summary clicked a regular search result on 8% of visits, compared with 15% when no summary appeared. They clicked a source inside the summary on just 1% of visits.
As fewer people explore the alternatives themselves, the handful of sources an answer draws on matters more. A researcher, specialist, or small organization can publish exactly the right information and still sit outside the sources that keep being surfaced.
When One System's Output Becomes Another's Input
Any single ranking system can usually be explained on its own terms. The larger problem appears when the systems feed one another.
A page that ranks well gets more visitors. Visitors generate links, mentions, and engagement, which can lift its ranking further. Higher visibility makes it more likely to be referenced by journalists, creators, researchers, and other websites, and those references raise its odds of appearing in future searches, recommendations, datasets, and AI-generated answers. Something that starts with little visibility runs the same loop in reverse, with fewer chances to produce the signals later systems treat as evidence of importance.
None of this requires a search engine, platform, or AI company to favor established organizations on purpose. When one discovery system relies on signals created by another, accumulated visibility becomes self-reinforcing, and small early differences grow into large ones. The Salganik experiment showed this happening inside a single market with a single popularity signal. Online, many systems are passing signals among themselves, so the bias can compound across all of them.
Who Pays for It?
The people trying to be found pay first. Starting a business costs more when visibility has to be bought before there is meaningful revenue to buy it with. Creators and professionals spend time chasing attention that could go into their craft or expertise, and new organizations may need significant capital just to offset the head start established competitors already enjoy. As the Dutch grant study illustrates, early advantages can also influence future access to funding, so promising work outside established networks may begin behind and find that disadvantage difficult to overcome.
Everyone else pays as well, often without realizing it. A buyer can't choose a supplier they never found, and the same holds for a company looking for a professional, an investor looking for ideas, and a reader looking for sources. When relevant alternatives exist and people can't find them, markets match needs and opportunities less well than they could. Most of that loss is never recorded, because nobody knows what they never found.
If discovery keeps rewarding whoever is already visible, ability goes to waste simply because nobody saw it.
What Fair Discovery Requires
Better discovery won't remove every inequality, and it shouldn't guarantee anyone attention, customers, investment, or recognition. What it can protect is the chance to be considered. The principles below are the ones we are working with now. They are not finished answers, and we expect them to change as organizations and professionals challenge them and add their own experience.
1. Core Discovery Is Not for Sale
The basic ability to browse, search, and discover relevant public information shouldn't depend on the size of anyone's budget or how long they've been visible. Organizations with more money will always have advantages in promotion, but purchasing power shouldn't decide organic placement. Someone searching for relevant work should be able to encounter smaller and newer participants alongside larger ones whenever both are relevant.
2. Success Should Not Be Taxed
Growing shouldn't automatically mean handing over larger commissions or a rising share of earnings. Where paid services exist, pricing should be understandable and predictable, so people know what they are paying for and can keep what they create as they succeed.
3. Communication Should Remain Accessible
Finding someone only helps if there is a reasonable way to reach them. Basic professional communication shouldn't be unnecessarily restricted by paywalls, per-contact charges, or costs that rise with every person you try to reach. It also has to respect privacy, individual preferences, and protection from unwanted or abusive contact, so openness and protection need to be designed together.
4. The Rules Should Not Depend on Size
A sole professional, a two-person studio, a small business, and a multinational company may all be relevant to the same search, and they should compete for organic discovery under the same rules. Financial scale shouldn't buy a separate class of organic visibility, and a search shouldn't quietly assume that size equals relevance.
5. Geography Should Not Define Relevance
A capable supplier, professional, creator, or researcher in a smaller market may be exactly what someone elsewhere needs. Location should count when it genuinely matters to the search, and it shouldn't otherwise keep relevant alternatives out of view.
6. Better Discovery Requires Finer Definitions
Being findable depends on being described accurately. Broad labels such as consulting, technology, design, health, or marketing group together organizations that do very different work, so a search inside them tends to return the best-known name instead of the best match. Profiles and directories need enough detail to describe specific services, expertise, projects, specialties, and capabilities.
They also need to distinguish clearly between individuals and businesses, and among businesses of different kinds and sizes. A freelance illustrator, a small design studio, and a multinational agency may all offer illustration, but someone looking for one is rarely looking for the others. Each should be findable by the people it is actually right for.
7. Discovery Should Offer Meaningful Alternatives
When several organizations, professionals, products, or sources could meet a need, people should be able to see and compare them, especially when one option already dominates attention. A useful system can say, in effect, "Here is a relevant option, and here are others you may not know about." Showing alternatives takes nothing away from established organizations, and it gives people a better basis for choosing.
8. Less Friction Requires More Trust
Reducing barriers only works when people can trust what they find and who is contacting them. An open system without safeguards is quickly overrun by spam, fraud, impersonation, misinformation, harassment, automated promotion, and ranking manipulation, and new or smaller participants are usually the first to be drowned out. Fair discovery therefore needs safeguards against misuse, including:
- checks that discourage deceptive or fraudulent identities;
- protection against manipulation of search and discovery;
- controls on unwanted or abusive communication;
- effective reporting and moderation;
- ways to tell genuine participation from artificial promotion;
- respect for privacy and communication preferences; and
- protection against well-funded participants recreating the same visibility advantage through manipulation.
Openness and responsibility have to be built together, since each fails without the other.
9. Discovery Should Operate on Understandable Principles
People should be able to understand why something is being shown to them. Organic results should rest on what the person is actually looking for, sponsored placement should be clearly labeled, and payment should never secretly decide organic position. People should also be able to look past the first result, recommendation, or generated answer. Not every ranking signal can be made public, since some disclosures would invite manipulation, but the governing principles can be.
Help Us Test These Ideas
None of these principles decides who succeeds. The final call stays with the person searching, hiring, buying, investing, or reading. What the principles try to settle is who gets considered in the first place, so that potentially valuable alternatives have a fair chance to enter the choice.
The principles are still evolving, and we'd rather have them challenged now than discover their weaknesses after they've hardened into assumptions. We especially want to hear from people who have been on the wrong side of the visibility gap, and from anyone who thinks part of this argument is wrong, unrealistic, or unfair.
Four questions matter most to us right now:
- Where have you seen good work, useful expertise, or new ideas overlooked because they were hard to find?
- Where are today's categories too broad to describe what you or your organization actually does?
- What should decide relevance when a small provider and a large organization both fit a search?
- What safeguard have we missed that would keep a more open system from being abused?
Share your answer in the comments or send us a message directly. The chance to be considered should not depend on who saw you first.
Sources
- Merton, R. K. (1968). "The Matthew Effect in Science." Science 159(3810): 56–63. Summary via FORRT.
- Bol, T., de Vaan, M., & van de Rijt, A. (2018). "The Matthew effect in science funding." PNAS 115(19): 4887–4890.
- UC Berkeley Haas (2018). Matthew effect: how early-career wins yield large and lasting advantages.
- Salganik, M. J., Dodds, P. S., & Watts, D. J. (2006). "Experimental Study of Inequality and Unpredictability in an Artificial Cultural Market." Science 311: 854–856.
- Backlinko. Google organic CTR study.
- Ahrefs (2023). 96.55% of content gets no traffic from Google.
- Pew Research Center (July 22, 2025). Google users are less likely to click on links when an AI summary appears in the results.